South African energy minister Jeff Radebe, this morning announced that the draft Integrated Resource Plan 2018 has been published and is now open for public comments. Sixty days for written comments from today.
The Minister highlighted that new installed capacity to 2030 will include; 1,000MW coal; 2,500MW hydro (imported); 5,600MW wind; 8,100MW solar PV; and a significant 8,100MW of gas.
He added: “The resultant installed capacity mix in year 2030 consist of coal with 34,000 megawatts which is 46% of total installed capacity, Nuclear with 1,860 megawatts which is 2.5%, Hydro with 4,696 megawatts which is 6%, Pump Storage with 2,912 megawatts which is 4%, PV with 7,958 megawatts which 10%, Wind with 11,442 megawatts which is 15%, CSP with 600 megawatts which is 1%, Gas with 11,930 megawatts which is 16%.
“It must be noted that while the coal installed capacity will be lower than the current installed base, it will still contribute more than 65% of the energy volumes with nuclear contributing about 4%.”
The draft report highlighted that the review and outcome of the Integrated Resource Plan Update imply the following:
- That the pace and scale of new capacity developments needed up to 2030 must
be curtailed compared with that in the Integrated Resource Plan 2010–2030.
- Ministerial Determinations for capacity beyond Bid Window 4 (27 signed projects)
issued under the Integrated Resource Plan 2010–2030 must be reviewed and
revised in line with the new projected system requirements for the period ending
“The significant change in energy mix post-2030 indicates the sensitivity of the results
observed to the assumptions made.
“A slight change concerning the assumptions can, therefore, change the path chosen. In-depth analysis of the assumptions and the economic implications of the electricity infrastructure development path chosen post-2030 will contribute to the mitigation of this risk,” the draft document highlighted. Read more: Will South Africa’s reviewed IRP hold clout?
View the draft document for comment here.