By Dr Peter Harrop, chairman, IDTechEx

12 June 2013 – Pure electric car sales in 2013 will be just 70,000 vehicles rising to two million in 2023, versus two million hybrid vehicles this year rising to 7.6 million in 2023. Of course, the big unit numbers come at the small end. Most of the unit volume in 2013 will be for two wheeled vehicles – 32 million vehicles in 2013 rising to 94 million in 2023, albeit at far lower average price points.

IDTechEx Research also finds that hybrid and pure electric cars will be almost half the total value of all electric vehicles in 2023. Although cars are the largest value sector, much more will be spent on other types of electric vehicle, taken together, over the coming decade. Indeed, cars will represent well under 10% of the profit made in EV manufacture in the next ten years and only 8% of the number of EVs made in 2023.

EV breakdown

Of the major sectors in 2023, Europe will still be the dominant market for EVs in the categories heavy industrial and mobility for the disabled. China will still be the main purchaser of e-bikes and e-buses but China, the Philippines and India will take most of the newly major category of car-like micro EV/quadricycles. On the other hand, the USA will still buy most military EVs, so EV adoption will be far from a uniform global phenomenon even in a decade from now. And no, Toyota will not be deposed from the top slot at any time over the coming decade. The followers are too far behind.