The recent publication of the draft Integrated Resource Plan 2018 highlights a concrete plan leading up to 2030; however, the post-2030 outlook is still to be confirmed based on more detailed studies and analysis.
Based on the draft documents, South African law firm Cliffe Dekker Hofmeyr, have highlighted that the IRP update acknowledges that the significant change in the energy mix post-2030 is highly impacted by the assumptions used, and that a slight change concerning the assumptions can alter the path chosen.
“It is therefore critical that the IRP Update, when finalised, is approached as it was intended to be, as a living document that is regularly reviewed and updated.
“The IRP Update states that the review and outcome imply that the pace and scale of new capacity developments needed up to 2030 must be curtailed compared with that in the IRP 2010. Effectively this means that the following IPP programmes will likely not continue: the Coal Baseload IPP programme (beyond the current two projects being procured), the Co-Generation IPP Programme and the Small Renewable Energy IPP Programme,” the legal firm explained.
The firm added: “Importantly the IRP Update states that the Ministerial Determinations for capacity beyond Bid Window 4 issued under the IRP 2010 must be reviewed and revised.
“Ministerial Determinations are issued in terms of S34 of the Electricity Regulation Act (ERA) and require consultation with Nersa. Decisions of Nersa are regulated by the National Energy Regulator Act and require a public participation process. This will certainly impact the timing of the anticipated Bid Window 5 under the REIPPP programme.”
View the draft document for comment here.