A collaboration between Climate Analytics and New Climate Institute the Climate Action Tracker has been tracking government climate action and measuring it against Paris Agreements since 2009.
This year’s update says:
- With all target pledges, including those made in Glasgow, global GHG emissions in 2030 will still be around twice as high as necessary for the 1.5°C limit.
- Stalled momentum from leaders and governments on short-term targets has narrowed the 2030 emissions gap by only 15-17% over the last year.
- With 2030 pledges alone – without longer term targets – global temperature increase will be at 2.4°C in 2100.
- The projected warming from current policies – what countries are actually doing – is even higher, at 2.7°C with only a 0.2°C improvement over the last year and nearly one degree above the net-zero announcements governments have made.
- Since the April 2021 Biden Leaders’ Summit, the CAT’s standard “pledges and targets” scenario temperature estimate of all NDCs and binding long-term targets has dropped by 0.3°C to 2.1°C, primarily down to the inclusion of the US and China’s net zero targets, now formalised in their long-term strategies submitted to the UNFCCC.
- While the projected warming from all net zero announcements, if fully implemented – the CAT’s ‘optimistic scenario’ – is down to 1.8˚C by 2100, this estimate is far from positive news.
- This ‘optimistic’ pathway is a long way from the Paris Agreement’s 1.5˚C limit, with peak 21st century warming of 1.9˚C and about a 16% chance of exceeding a warming of 2.4˚C.
Claims of net zero goals do not equal actual plans
Bill Hare, Climate Analytics CEO: “The vast majority of 2030 actions and targets are inconsistent with net zero goals: there’s a nearly one-degree gap between government current policies and their net zero goals.”
“It’s all very well for leaders to claim they have a net zero target, but if they have no plans as to how to get there, and their 2030 targets are as low as so many of them are, then frankly, these net zero targets are just lip service to real climate action. Glasgow has a serious credibility gap,” he said.
More than 140 governments have announced net zero goals, covering 90% of global emissions. The CAT’s 40-country analysis (where net zero announcements cover 85% of emissions) shows only a small number, covering only 6% of global emissions, are rated “acceptable” and have actual plans in place to get there.
Professor Niklas Höhne of CAT partner organisation NewClimate Institute: “While the wave of net zero targets appears like remarkable news, we can’t sit back and relax. In the situation where, even with the new pledges, global emissions in 2030 will still be twice as high as required for 1.5°C, all countries must urgently look at what more they can do.”
Given this situation, in the final stages of Glasgow, governments need to focus on closing the credibility gap. This can only come from increasing the 2030 mitigation ambition, and closing the finance gap, which is essential for many developing countries to make the big jump needed in reducing their emissions to 1.5°C compatible levels.
Climate Action Tracker’s analysis says coal and gas are driving inaction
“If the massive 2030 gap cannot be narrowed in Glasgow, governments must agree to come back next year, by COP27, with new and stronger targets. Today’s leaders need to be held to account for this massive 2030 gap. If we wait another five years and only discuss 2035 commitments, the 1.5°C limit may well be lost,” said Höhne.
“Coal must be out of the power sector by 2030 in the OECD, and globally by 2040, and in spite of political momentum and the clear benefits beyond climate change mitigation, there is still a huge amount of coal in the pipeline,” said Hare.
“The biggest of the coal countries, China, India, Indonesia and Viet Nam, must reduce their coal pipelines, but they cannot switch to gas instead. We are seeing the rise of a gas industry pushing its product as an alternative, still supported by many governments. We cannot let fossil fuels be replaced with more fossil fuels.”
The CAT also found the announcements to reduce methane and deforestation made in Glasgow narrow the emissions gap only slightly, if at all.
You can read the full Climate Action Tracker annual global update online.